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One of the more consistent features of this cycle has been the utter futility of predicting short-term interest rates, not just in the U.S., but globally. Central bankers have been outflanked at every turn by inflation being stickier than models expected, labor markets that refuse to cooperate, and fiscal policy that, even now, remains allergic to restraint. The result is a kind of institutional paralysis where everyone is waiting for someone else to blink, including the Fed.
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